The EU’s down and out countries

Aren’t you all happy in the EU that all these countries on the left of the graph belong to the EU. It makes for such economic strength.

(H/T Zero Hedge)

Good advice from one of Europe’s greatest bores Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the Eurogroup, said on Thursday 10th December that „the budget situation in Greece is tense but the country should avoid bankruptcy“.

And Citibank has this to say

Amongst global emerging markets, emerging Europe is definitely a laggard. In 2009, based on IMF estimates, emerging Europe GDP (CEE + Turkey) is expected to decline c5%, twice as large as the Latin American contraction. In 2010, emerging Europe is expected to grow c2%, but lagging Latin America (c3%). Emerging Asia remains in a different league altogether: +5% for 2009E, +7% for 2010E.

Within emerging Europe, all the major countries are expected to register negative GDP growth in 2009, Poland aside. Romania is the worst (-8% yoy), followed closely by Hungary and Bulgaria. Emerging European growth should be anemic in 2010, with most of CEE/SEE growing at between -1% and +1%, with 2-3% economic growth expected in 2011. Only Turkey is expected to register a respectable growth rate (+4%, 2010E. +5%, 2011E).

Probably the most concerning trend is the ever increasing use by Greek banks of the European Central Bank Repo Facility. As long as this is a key short-term funding vehicle, the financial system will certainly be strained.

full ZH post here

(The EU Powerhouse Series) Psst, some really sweet real estate deal in Estonia

No idea why nations are so eager to join a club that really looks pretty run down and is being managed by some corrupt consiglieri in Brussels. Any way, property prices are a screaming buy at 59% down.

The economy will contract by 14.5pc this year, twice as bad as Iceland (OECD forecasts). Industrial production has fallen 28pc. The unemployed receive half their former pay for a few months, then benefits fall to £12 a week. The shock awaits this winter.

EU parliament, “that place is one big fucking NGO.”

Those were the words of one Brussels diplomat.

Things you could do on June 7 instead of voting for a fucked up place:

• screw the whole day
• tend to your marijuana garden
• hike in the mountains
• screw again
• read a good porno
• listen to house music
• sleep in

Getting ugly: Chrysler-Fiat-Opel-EU

Read this in Italian and enjoy. Are the Germans already deploying panzer?

Invalide Europa

As Paul Krugman puts it “In Europe, leaders rejected pleas for a comprehensive rescue plan for troubled East European economies, promising instead to provide “case-by-case” support. That means a slow dribble of funds, with no chance of reversing the downward spiral.“

Oh, and Jean-Claude Trichet says that there is no deflation threat in Europe. What’s the weather like on his planet?

25 Milliarden sollen also nun die Länder westlich der Borat-Countries flügge machen?! 25 bringen JCT de la Roche du Ponsely von der EZB Herzrythmusstörungen, ABER

„(It) sounds like a lot of money, but when (commercial) banks have lent Eastern Europe about 1.7 trillion dollars, 25 billion is peanuts,“ said Nigel Rendell, emerging markets strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in London. „Ultimately we will have to get a much bigger package and a coordinated response from the IMF, the European Union and maybe the G7.“

Das Nein für umfassende Hilfsmassnahmen quitierte der Währungsmarkt mit dem höchsten $-Kurs seit April 2006. Und die europäischen Aktienmarkte erreichen den tiefsten Stand seit 12 Jahren. Zwischenzeitlich jongliert JCT de la EZB in La-La- Land die Baguettes in holistischer Weise.

Mittlerweile ist die EU INTELLEKTUEL vorbereitet

However, Mr Almunia’s comments made clear not only that EU policymakers would not remain impassive in the face of a crisis in a eurozone country, but would act pre-emptively before a bail-out became necessary.

“By definition this kind of thing should not be explained in public. But we are equipped intellectually, politically, economically,” he said.

EU: erste Regierung stürzt.

Latvias Regierung stürzt

His departure comes at a critical juncture for Latvia, a country of 2.2 million people. After entering the European Union in 2004, Latvia and its neighbors Estonia and Lithuania posted Europe’s highest growth figures, earning the moniker the Baltic Tigers. Now Latvia shows the Continent’s biggest losses.

Gross domestic product shrank at an annual rate of 10.5 percent last month, and by the end of 2009, Latvia’s economy is projected to shrink by a shocking 12 percent, Finance Ministry officials say. Other analysts believe that even these figures may be optimistic.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s 15 percent,” Peteris Strautins, chief economist for Swedbankin Riga, said last week.

Österreich’s Banken und der Osten

Artikel con EU-Überskeptiker Evans-Pritchard, der aber sehr ernst zu nehmen ist:

“Estimates of total expected asset write-downs suggest that the budgetary costs of asset relief could be very large both in absolute terms and relative to GDP in member states,” said the document, prepared for a closed-door meeting of EU finance ministers.

“For some member states, it may be the case that asset relief for banks is no longer an option, due to their existing budgetary constraints and/or the size of their banks’ balance sheet relative to GDP. The extent of any risks to the EU banking system as a whole from an inadequate response in these member states needs to be considered, particularly in the case of cross-border banks”. …

… The IMF says European and British banks have 75pc as much exposure to US toxic debt as American banks themselves, yet they have been much slower to take their punishment. Write-downs have been $738bn in the US: just $294bn in Europe.

Global banks have so far written down half the $2,200bn losses estimted by the IMF. On top of this, EU banks have $1,600bn of exposure to Eastern Europe — increasingly viewed as Europe’s subprime debacle, and EU corporate debts are 95pc of GDP compared to 50pc in the US, a mounting concern as default rates surge. …

Der Artikel erwähnt nicht Österreich, aber es ist bekannt, dass Ö sehr stark mit Krediten im Osten engagiert ist. Österreichische Businessleute sprechen von Bankpleiten in enormen Ausmassen.

Die Freuden des Euro

Er war konzipiert als die vereinende Währung für so disparate Länder wie, F, D, GR, PT, u.s.w. Disparat nicht abwertend, sondern eben weil diese Länder so verschieden sind und weswegen man sie ja auch bereist.

Recht bald  stellte sich das europäische Kastensystem klar heraus, da gab es Core Europe und nicht so Core, wie z.B. die PIGS oder aktuell besser PIIGS. Und diese lernen nun sehr schnell die Vorzüge und Fallstricke einer POLITISCH MOTIVIERTEN Währung kennen. Für Randeuropäer ist es teuer geworden, Anleihen zu begeben.

Ein Ex-Politiker aus GR: “I don’t think Europe is up to it,” he said. “It expanded too rapidly without fixing its institutions.”

EU welcomes 28th member

In the auspicious year 2009 the European Union welcomes its newest and most distinguished member. Cheers!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile celebrations got a little out of hand in Lithuania which is somewhat close to Borat country.

(Thanks to RGE Monitor)

Ireland – Direland

Europa’s schlechte Nachrichten und Aussichten nehmen kein Ende:

Economist and former Irish Central bank official David McWilliams as to the degree of stress facing the single currency (our emphasis):

“This is war: countries have to defend themselves,” said David McWilliams, a former official at the Irish central bank.

“It is essential that we go to Europe and say we have a serious problem. We say, either we default or we pull out of Europe,” he told RTE radio.

“If Ireland continues hurtling down this road, which is close to default, the whole of Europe will be badly affected. The credibility of the euro will be badly affected. Then Spain might default, Italy and Greece,” he said.

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Natürlich wäre ein Austritt aus der EU mit deutlichen Nachteilen wie höhere Zinsen für Anleihen verbunden … siehe Buiter.

Aber dennoch, nur mal angenommen, Irland velässt dir EU und Spanien folgt. Italien ist ohnehin ein Kandidat seit Jahren für einen Austritt im Bereich von 40% plus. Portugal noch. Wie würde dann der Euro dastehen mit D und F und A allein?