1. German economy expected to grow, some say even by more than 2%. Unless you read Ambrose
2. Call that perfect timing, perhaps: after saying Yes (with thumb screws on) to the EU constitution Lisbon treaty Ireland may now have to say „Yes, please came in“ to the IMF.
3. When a listless female chancellor and a gay mono-lingual slime boy fondle each other during coalition talks you need to bring out morsels of good news, such as that the German export economy is going to grow (is it 1.2 or rather a good 2%, heck the press prints it). This is Zero Hedge’s take:
Yet total capital inflows are still not enough to support the dollar. Europe is now locked in a vicious cycle whereby its export economy will continue suffocating, resulting in a weaker dollar, a stronger euro, a failed asset inflation scheme (sorry, Bernanke can’t be everywhere at the same time), even less exports, an even higher euro, and yet another isolated bubble, however with totally different dynamics than the U.S. version. Eventually, every country will be forced to consume just what it can produce, with viable European exporters going the way of the dodo, courtesy of Bernanke spreading the Moral Hazard Doctrine, eradicating the U.S. middle class, killing the dollar, and inflating the latest stock market bubble merely to bail out his Wall Street entourage.
Impromptu meeting between Merkel and Putin. Putin sticking it to tha Misses from Gerrrrmany.
The IMF was not attending but had this to say about the Russian economy meanwhile:
the discretionary fiscal stimulus should be curtailed in 2009, by limiting the deterioration in the balance of the general government to a still very sizable 7-8 percent of GDP, compared to the more than 10 percent of GDP currently planned. A better targeted, yet smaller, stimulus could have a similar impact on economic activity, while avoiding a permanent change in the tax and expenditure structure of the budget. Looking ahead, if a smaller discretionary stimulus is implemented in 2009, there would be scope to maintain the fiscal stimulus in 2010 if the growth outlook weakens further.
Der IWF hat ein diplomatisch getünchtes PDF veröffentlicht über Ponzi Zockereien in der Karibik. Etliche davon aus Ländern Ost-Europas.
Oh and you should not forget: Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
Verwerflich, aber wie steht es um das bundesdeutsche, staatliche Ponzimodel des FM Peer Roccoponte Steinbrück?? Beruhigenderweise wird das erst spürbar in ein paar Monaten beginnen zu greifen.
The gap between the interest rates Greece, Portugal and Spain must pay investors to borrow for 10 years and the rate charged to Germany rose yesterday to the widest since before they adopted the euro and credit-default swaps on Ireland hit a record. The differential between Austrian and German yields widened to a record today as concern intensified about Austria’s exposure to eastern European banks.
“Austria is on the hook for so much money that essentially if they don’t get paid by eastern Europe they’ll go bust,” Marc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “So the European Union basically has to help Austria one way or the other.”
Greek credit-default swaps, at 270 points on Feb. 16, show a 4.5 percent chance that the country will default in the next 12 months, according to ING Bank NV.
Part of the problem policy makers now face stems from the fact the currency union does not have a single treasury and relies on the Stability and Growth Pact, which has been breached in the past, to keep budgets in check. Billionaire investorGeorge Soros said yesterday the region’s economy must confront the problem posed by the lack of a Europe-wide finance ministry.
