Italienische und österreichische Banken

Unicredit Probleme

“Eastern Europe is the new bogeyman,” said Massimiliano Romano, an analyst at Concentric Italy in Milan. “UniCredit has subsidiaries in 17 different countries there. We used to see that as diversification, now we see it as a risk.”

65 Mrd $ Engagements in Osteuropa, Aktie minus 76% in einem Jahr, Q4 Profit down 57%. Braucht 4 Mrd. Euro Staatshilfe.

Oh, and just to cap it all, and a very bad day for Unicredit, HVB Group, their German banking unit, announced this morning that they had a loss of 671 million euros last year because of writedowns on investments and higher provisions for risky loans. HVB’s trading results were “severely affected by the extreme market turmoil which intensified in the fourth quarter of 2008,” according to the company statement.

Und weiter gehts nach Österreich: Bank Austria braucht bis zu 2,7 Mrd € Staatshilfe.

Bei der Bilanzpressekonferenz der Bank Austria in Wien wurde von Bank-Austria-Chef Erich Hampel allerdings nicht dezidiert ausgeschlossen, dass die 30 Prozent von privater Seite zusätzlich zu den 2,7 Milliarden Euro fließen. Hampel sprach aber von einer theoretischen Variante und betonte, dass es „noch keine konkreten Beschlüsse im Haus gibt“. 

Invalide Europa

As Paul Krugman puts it “In Europe, leaders rejected pleas for a comprehensive rescue plan for troubled East European economies, promising instead to provide “case-by-case” support. That means a slow dribble of funds, with no chance of reversing the downward spiral.“

Oh, and Jean-Claude Trichet says that there is no deflation threat in Europe. What’s the weather like on his planet?

25 Milliarden sollen also nun die Länder westlich der Borat-Countries flügge machen?! 25 bringen JCT de la Roche du Ponsely von der EZB Herzrythmusstörungen, ABER

„(It) sounds like a lot of money, but when (commercial) banks have lent Eastern Europe about 1.7 trillion dollars, 25 billion is peanuts,“ said Nigel Rendell, emerging markets strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in London. „Ultimately we will have to get a much bigger package and a coordinated response from the IMF, the European Union and maybe the G7.“

Das Nein für umfassende Hilfsmassnahmen quitierte der Währungsmarkt mit dem höchsten $-Kurs seit April 2006. Und die europäischen Aktienmarkte erreichen den tiefsten Stand seit 12 Jahren. Zwischenzeitlich jongliert JCT de la EZB in La-La- Land die Baguettes in holistischer Weise.

Mittlerweile ist die EU INTELLEKTUEL vorbereitet

However, Mr Almunia’s comments made clear not only that EU policymakers would not remain impassive in the face of a crisis in a eurozone country, but would act pre-emptively before a bail-out became necessary.

“By definition this kind of thing should not be explained in public. But we are equipped intellectually, politically, economically,” he said.

Economist: Die Rechnung, die Europa zerbrechen könnte

Leitartikel des ECONOMIST:

The bill that could break up Europe

TUMBLING exchange rates, gaping current-account deficits, fearsome foreign-currency borrowings and nasty recessions: these sound like the ingredients of a distant third-world-debt crisis from the 1980s and 1990s. Yet in Europe the mess has been cooked up closer to home, in east European countries, many of them now members of the European Union. One consequence is that older EU countries will find themselves footing the bill for clearing it up.

Many west Europeans, faced with severe recession at home, will see this as outrageously unfair. The east Europeans have been on a binge fuelled by foreign investment, the desire for western living standards and the hope that most would soon be able to adopt Europe’s single currency, the euro. Critics argue, with some justice, that some east European countries were ill-prepared for EU membership; that they have botched or sidestepped reforms; and that they have wasted their borrowed billions on construction and consumption booms. Surely they should pay the price for their own folly?

voller Artikel

200 Mrd € für Osteuropa

Ach die Freude eines vereinten Europas; von Madeira bis kurz vor Wladivostok; alles Europa. Da muss man doch sabbern.

Der österreichische Kurier schreibt:

 

Der Plan

Jene Länder Osteuropas, die Mitglied der EU sind, sollen weitere Zahlungsbilanzhilfe bis 100 Milliarden Euro erhalten. Diese Hilfe ist derzeit mit 25 Milliarden Euro gedeckelt, davon sind zehn für Ungarn und Lettland bereits verbraucht. Vor allem Rumänien und Bulgarien dürften Hilfe benötigen, in Ungarn wird ein zweites Hilfspaket überlegt. Wegen der EU-Wahl und dem Wechsel in der EU-Kommission ist Europa über den Sommer weitgehend entscheidungsunfähig, die Aufstockung sollte auch ein Schutzschirm dafür sein.

Jene Länder der Region, die nicht der EU angehören, sollen mit 50 Milliarden Euro unterstützt werden. Es geht dabei vor allem um den Südbalkan (Serbien, Kroatien), vor allem aber um die Ukraine. Das Geld könnte auch von der Europäischen Investitionsbank kommen, die eine Anleihe auflegt. Da sich die EU-Hausbank viel billiger finanzieren kann, wäre es möglich, den Ländern günstigere Konditionen zu machen.

Doch es wäre wäre nicht die EU, wenn man nicht noch etwas schlafen möchte:

 

Langsam

Die europäische Politik verhält sich dagegen weiter zögerlich. Beim EU-Finanzministertreffen im März dürfte Osteuropa keine Rolle spielen: Die EU streitet wieder einmal, warum die großen EU-Länder bei der kommenden Regulierung der Finanzmärkte die kleineren nicht gefragt haben. Polen und Belgien sollen ziemlich verschnupft sein. Ökonomen wie der (gewerkschaftsnahe) deutsche Univ.-Prof. Gustav Horn sehen in diesen Zeitverzögerungen eine reale Gefahr. „Deutschland verhält sich zur Zeit nicht europäisch“, kritisierte er. Eine Einschätzung, die er mit konservativen Regierungen wie jener in Frankreich teilt.
Horn stellt aber auch die Konstruktion der EZB in Frage. „Sie ist auf solche Krisen nicht vorbereitet.“ So darf die EZB keine neuen Staatsanleihen kaufen, die US-Notenbank sehr wohl. Das erleichtert die Finanzierung der enormen Hilfs- und Konjunktur-Pakete. (Highlight meins)

Weltbank Zoellick zu Osteuropa

WB Präse Zoellick sieht es als unabdingbar an, den betroffenen Staaten in Osteuropa finanziell zu helfen, sonst “It’s 20 years after Europe was united in 1989 – what a tragedy if you allow Europe to split again.”

Interview

Osteuropa wird IMF Fall?

Es sieht sehr düster aus in den Ländern westlich von Borat Country.
Auf Bloomberg. Danach ist der IMF ist einzige Rettung.

Anderswo auf Bloomberg:

The gap between the interest rates Greece, Portugal and Spain must pay investors to borrow for 10 years and the rate charged to Germany rose yesterday to the widest since before they adopted the euro and credit-default swaps on Ireland hit a record. The differential between Austrian and German yields widened to a record today as concern intensified about Austria’s exposure to eastern European banks.

“Austria is on the hook for so much money that essentially if they don’t get paid by eastern Europe they’ll go bust,” Marc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “So the European Union basically has to help Austria one way or the other.”

Greek credit-default swaps, at 270 points on Feb. 16, show a 4.5 percent chance that the country will default in the next 12 months, according to ING Bank NV.

Part of the problem policy makers now face stems from the fact the currency union does not have a single treasury and relies on the Stability and Growth Pact, which has been breached in the past, to keep budgets in check. Billionaire investorGeorge Soros said yesterday the region’s economy must confront the problem posed by the lack of a Europe-wide finance ministry.

Dollar und Osteuropa

So sieht der Forex Markts aus nach den Nachrichten aus Osteuropa: Flucht in die Sicherheit des US Dollars.

(von P. Kedrosky)

Osteuropa rutscht ins finanzielle Sibirien

Dem Sammelsurium Europa droht im Osten ein Kreditdebakel von astronomischen Proportionen. Man spricht von 1,3 Billiarden €. Moody’s sieht ein Downgrade für Länder mit starken Kreditexponationen hier. Ganz stark betroffen ist hier Österreich mit seinen Dependancen im Osten und Schweden. Österreich galt lange als sehr geschickter Operateur hier und machte hier das Gros seiner Bankenprofite. Das ist vorbei.

Austria, whose banking system is “most exposed” to central and eastern Europe, has two of the biggest lenders in the region. RZB made 79 percent of its 2007 pretax profits in eastern Europe, including Russia and Ukraine through its Raiffeisen International Bank Holding AG unit, and Erste Group Bank AG earned 65 percent of its pretax profits in countries including Romania, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

Erste, which said last week that full-year profit probably slumped about 26 percent, is in talks with the Austrian government to get 2.7 billion euros ($3.4 billion) in state aid. RZB, which owns a 69 percent stake in Raiffeisen International, which is active in 18 eastern European countries, is also in talks with the Austrian state and has asked for 1.75 billion euros.

(H/T Zero Hedge)

 

POLEN: In der Zwischenzeit ist zum ohnehin schon bekannten Hypotheken-Problem (60% basieren auf CH Franken) eine wahrscheinlich noch grössere Forex-Derivate Exponation bei polnischen Konzernen die Ursache für drastische Kurseinbrüche.

Der Zloty fällt weiter und „Bloomberg, meanwhile, reported that Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch expects the zloty to weaken even further against the dollar in the next two months, down by at least another 13 per cent to 3.85 per dollar.“

Mittlerweile verkauft Polen €, um seine Währung zu stützen. PL soll etwa 60 Mrd € Foreign Reserves haben.

Österreich zimmert 150 Mrd € Hilfspaket zusammen

Austria’s finance minister Josef Pröll made frantic efforts last week to put together a €150bn rescue for the ex-Soviet bloc. Well he might. His banks have lent €230bn to the region, equal to 70pc of Austria’s GDP.

„A failure rate of 10pc would lead to the collapse of the Austrian financial sector,“ reported Der Standard in Vienna. Unfortunately, that is about to happen.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says bad debts will top 10pc and may reach 20pc. The Vienna press said Bank Austria and its Italian owner Unicredit face a „monetary Stalingrad“ in the East.

Mr Pröll tried to drum up support for his rescue package from EU finance ministers in Brussels last week. The idea was scotched by Germany’s Peer Steinbrück. Not our problem, he said. We’ll see about that. …

———

Es wäre nicht das erste Mal, dass Lehmkrücke danebenliegt. Not our problem hörte man auch vor gut 4 Monaten als die USA abschmolzen. Der Rest ist bekannt.

———

… Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay – or roll over – $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region’s GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut. …

… In Poland, 60pc of mortgages are in Swiss francs. The zloty has just halved against the franc. Hungary, the Balkans, the Baltics, and Ukraine are all suffering variants of this story. As an act of collective folly – by lenders and borrowers – it matches America’s sub-prime debacle. There is a crucial difference, however. European banks are on the hook for both. US banks are not.

Almost all East bloc debts are owed to West Europe, especially Austrian, Swedish, Greek, Italian, and Belgian banks. En plus, Europeans account for an astonishing 74pc of the entire $4.9 trillion portfolio of loans to emerging markets.

They are five times more exposed to this latest bust than American or Japanese banks, and they are 50pc more leveraged (IMF data).

Spain is up to its neck in Latin America, which has belatedly joined the slump (Mexico’s car output fell 51pc in January, and Brazil lost 650,000 jobs in one month). Britain and Switzerland are up to their necks in Asia. …

… “This is much worse than the East Asia crisis in the 1990s,“ said Lars Christensen, at Danske Bank.

„There are accidents waiting to happen across the region, but the EU institutions don’t have any framework for dealing with this. The day they decide not to save one of these one countries will be the trigger for a massive crisis with contagion spreading into the EU.“ …

Der Osten Europas – ein Milliardengrab der Banken

Ganz nebenbei, wer hatte eigentlich diese Suffidee eines vereinten Europas? Egal.

Unbehagen im Alpenland, die Mozartkugeln fliegen tief.

Aus FT

Leading international banks operating in central and eastern Europe have clubbed together to lobby the European Union and the European Central Bank to extend their anti-crisis policies to ease the credit crunch in the region.

The group of nine, which wants action to ease liquidity shortages and help revive lending, is urging Brussels and the ECB to extend support beyond the EU’s new member states, such as Poland, to prospective members, such as Serbia, and to Ukraine, which has few prospects of joining the bloc soon.

Herbert Stepic, chief executive of Raiffeisen International, the Austrian bank, who brought the group together, said it was important that any action to support banks was not limited to western Europe.

“We fought for 50 years, many of us, to get these countries away from communism and now we have a free market economy in the region, we can’t leave them alone when there is an extremely harsh wind blowing,” he said.

The group has kept a low profile until now, but Mr Stepic told the Financial Times he was speaking out “because of the deteriorating economic circumstances”.

He said the costs of possible support would be “relatively” modest in comparison with the huge sums pledged to assist western European banks. The total gross domestic product of formerly communist central Europe was €740bn and for south-east Europe €270bn. This compared with €290bn for Austria alone.

His remarks come amid a week of fresh turmoil in the financial markets and a darkening economic outlook. The European Commission released a forecast of a 1.8 per cent decline in EU economic output for 2009, its gloomiest prediction in years, while Moody’s, the credit ratings agency, on Wednesday said the outlook for the Ukrainian banking system was negative….

As well as Raiffeisen, the banks involved are Italy’s Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo, Austria’s Erste Bank, Société Générale from France, Belgium’s KBC, German Bayern Landesbank, Sweden’s Swedbank, and EFG Eurobank from Greece.

Source
Banks ask for crisis funds for E Europe - FT